Carbon Emission Scenario Prediction and Peak Path Selection in China

Due to the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, global climate is warming. As world’s biggest emitter emissions, China faces a more severe challenge in reducing emissions than developed countries. A reasonable prediction peak will help government formulate effective reduction paths. This paper analyzes changes from 2004 2020, uses STIRPAT model scenario analysis method predict 2021 2030, then calculates efficiency during peaking select most path for China. The results show that China’s increased year by 2020. Under baseline scenario, unlikely reach its before 2030. regulatory scenarios, can values high low are seen with rapid development-weak control development-intensified slow respectively. Correspondingly, 2029, 2028, 2028 respectively, according these scenarios. under highest, which means accelerating growth rate population, GDP urbanization while moderately carrying out transformation industrial structure energy an way achieve goal “carbon 2030”.